Published: September 17, 2009 10:06 am      

TELEVISION: Emmy predictions

By Phil Dzikiy



Once again, it’s TV’s night to celebrate itself.

The 61st Primetime Emmy Awards return to CBS on Sunday night with Neil Patrick Harris as host. (He’s likely a better option than a mix of reality show hosts.)

For those looking to handicap the race — we don’t condone it, but you could gamble on such things, you know — you’ve come to the right place. Well, maybe. We did nail more than half of our projections last year.

This year, we’ll be focusing on the major categories again. It’s for the best — our guesses for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie would be a shot in the dark, even more so than our other predictions.

Outstanding Drama Series

• “Big Love” (HBO)

• “Breaking Bad” (AMC)

• “Damages” (FX)

• “Dexter” (Showtime)

• “House” (Fox)

• “Lost” (ABC)

• “Mad Men” (AMC)

Last year, six shows were nominated in this category. Before that, five. It’s a pattern. We can’t wait until 2020. Anyway, “Mad Men” was the big winner last year and it should be again this year. It doesn’t have the same amount of viewers as most of the other shows, but the audience is growing and the critical admiration is still off the charts.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• “30 Rock” (NBC)

• “Entourage” (HBO)

• “Family Guy” (Fox)

• “Flight of the Conchords” (HBO)

• “How I Met Your Mother” (CBS)

• “The Office” (NBC)

• “Weeds” (Showtime)

Seven shows in this category, too. And again, we’ll be picking a repeat winner. “30 Rock” is the “Mad Men” of comedies.

Outstanding Miniseries

• “Generation Kill” (HBO)

• “Little Dorrit” (PBS)

What, were only two miniseries released in the past year? It’s a 50-50 shot and we won’t be picking a PBS period piece. “Generation Kill” for the win.

Outstanding Made for Television Movie

• “Coco Chanel” (Lifetime)

• “Grey Gardens” (HBO)

• “Into the Storm” (HBO)

• “Prayers for Bobby” (Lifetime)

• “Taking Chance” (HBO)

We’re a bit more clueless on this category, but we’ll go with “Grey Gardens.” It had two stars (Drew Barrymore and Jessica Lange), it was on HBO and it was about relatives of Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis. Sounds like a recipe for an Emmy win.

Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series

• “The Colbert Report” (Comedy Central)

• “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” (Comedy Central)

• “Late Show with David Letterman” (CBS)

• “Real Time with Bill Maher” (HBO)

• “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

“The Daily Show” won last year, but we can feel it ... it’s Colbert’s time. “The Colbert Report” will get the Emmy.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

• “The Amazing Race” (CBS)

• “American Idol” (Fox)

• “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)

• “Project Runway” (Bravo)

• “Top Chef” (Bravo)

“The Amazing Race” always wins this award. And for good reason — it’s a great show. But we’re going to call the upset this year and give the nod to “Top Chef.”

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Simon Baker — “The Mentalist” (CBS)

• Gabriel Byrne — “In Treatment” (HBO)

• Bryan Cranston — “Breaking Bad” (AMC)

• Michael C. Hall — “Dexter” (Showtime)

• Jon Hamm — “Mad Men” (AMC)

• Hugh Laurie — “House” (Fox)

Night & Day readers weren’t that surprised by Cranston’s win last year, as we pegged Cranston as a viable dark horse. This year, Cranston will lose to Jon Hamm.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Glenn Close — “Damages” (FX)

• Sally Field — “Brothers & Sisters” (ABC)

• Mariska Hargitay — “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” (NBC)

• Holly Hunter — “Saving Grace (TNT)

• Elisabeth Moss — “Mad Men” (AMC)

• Kyra Sedgwick — “The Closer” (TNT)

It’s the same group of nominees from last year, plus Moss. Will she jump right into the fray and grab the award? We don’t think so. Glenn Close to repeat.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Alec Baldwin — “30 Rock” (NBC)

• Steve Carell — “The Office” (NBC)

• Jemaine Clement — “Flight of the Conchords” (HBO)

• Jim Parsons — “The Big Bang Theory” (CBS)

• Tony Shalhoub — “Monk” (USA)

• Charlie Sheen — “Two and a Half Men” (CBS)

This category is an embarrassment of riches. Alec Baldwin got the deserving win last year, but we’ll go with the guy who’s got the most buzz: Jim Parsons for playing Sheldon Cooper.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Christina Applegate — “Samantha Who?” (ABC)

• Toni Collette — “United States of Tara” (Showtime)

• Tina Fey — “30 Rock” (NBC)

• Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “The New Adventures of Old Christine” (CBS)

• Mary-Louise Parker — “Weeds” (Showtime)

• Sarah Silverman — “The Sarah Silverman Program” (Comedy Central)

Fey is the established winner, but Toni Collette plays a woman with dissociative identity disorder. We’ll pick Tara.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

• Kevin Bacon — “Taking Chance” (HBO)

• Kenneth Branagh — “Wallander: One Step Behind” (PBS)

• Brendan Gleeson — “Into the Storm” (HBO)

• Kevin Kline — “Cyrano de Bergerac (Great Performances)” (PBS)

• Ian McKellen — “King Lear (Greatest Performances)” (PBS)

• Kiefer Sutherland — “24: Redemption” (Fox)

Some heavyweights in this category, especially on PBS. But who among them carries more weight than Sir Ian McKellen?

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

• Drew Barrymore — “Grey Gardens” (HBO)

• Jessica Lange — “Grey Gardens” (HBO)

• Shirley MacLaine — “Coco Chanel” (Lifetime)

• Sigourney Weaver — “Prayers for Bobby” (Lifetime)

• Chandra Wilson — “Accidental Friendship” (Hallmark Channel)

A tricky category, but if the woman from “Grey’s Anatomy” wins for a TV movie on the Hallmark Channel, we’ll probably give up predictions. HBO certainly carries more weight than Lifetime, but the “Grey Gardens” vote could be split. A tough call, but we’re going with Jessica Lange.

Outstanding Host for a Reality Show or Reality Competition

• Tom Bergeron — “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)

• Phil Keoghan — “The Amazing Race” (CBS)

• Heidi Klum — “Project Runway” (Bravo)

• Padma Lakshmi and Tom Colicchio — “Top Chef” (Bravo)

• Jeff Probst — “Survivor” (CBS)

• Ryan Seacrest — “American Idol” (Fox)

It’s kind of a silly category, but aren’t all these award shows rather silly, really? The only thing sillier is predicting who might win the awards. Anyway, Probst won last year. “The Amazing Race” will get on the board somehow, and Phil Keoghan should earn the Emmy.

Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Special

• “Chris Rock: Kill the Messenger” (HBO)

• “Kathy Griffin: She’ll Cut a B**ch” (Bravo)

• “Ricky Gervais: Out of England — The Stand-Up Special” (HBO)

• “The Kennedy Center Honors” (CBS)

• “You’re Welcome America: A Final Night with George W. Bush” (HBO)

Kathy Griffin, if only for the title of her special.