CHICAGO — For uninsured people, the nation's new health care law may offer an escape from worry about unexpected, astronomical medical bills. But for Stephanie Payne of St. Louis, who already had good insurance, the law could offer another kind of escape: the chance to quit her job.
At 62, Payne has worked for three decades as a nurse, most recently traveling house to house caring for 30 elderly and disabled patients. But she's ready to leave that behind, including the job-based health benefits, to move to Oregon and promote her self-published book. She envisions herself blogging, doing radio interviews and speaking to seniors groups.
"I want the freedom to fit that into my day without squeezing it into my day," she said.
One of the selling points of the new health care plan, which has a March 31 enrollment deadline, is that it breaks the link between affordable health insurance and having a job with benefits. Payne believes she'll be able to replace her current coverage with a $400- to $500-a-month plan on Oregon's version of the new insurance exchange system set up under the law.
Federal experts believe the new insurance option will be a powerful temptation for a lot of job-weary workers ready to bail out. Last month, congressional budget analysts estimated that within 10 years, the equivalent of 2.5 million full-time workers could be working less because of the expanded coverage.
But is the new option a gamble? That's a matter of debate, not only among the politicians who are still arguing furiously over the law's merits, but among economists and industry experts.
"We don't know what the future of exchange insurance will be," said economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a center-right public policy institute. Premiums should remain stable if enrollment picks up and broadens to include younger, healthier people. But if older, sicker people are the vast majority of customers, prices eventually could spike.