The favorites in college football bounced back in week 10 with a 2-1 ATS record. That helped contribute to a 5-1 ATS record overall.
Now's the time in college football to consider motivation and for some weird things to happen. It's November, so expect the unexpected. Here's the week 11 college picks featuring the three best favorites that will cover the spread.
Overall: 39-21 ATS
Favorites: 18-12 ATS
Tennessee at Missouri (-13)
Tennessee's offense is atrocious. The Volunteers are averaging 4.4 yards per play, ranking 123rd out of 130 teams in FBS. Even worse, that number has dropped in the last three games to 3.9 yards per play.
That won't work against the Tigers. Missouri's offense is finding its groove and Tennessee's defense isn't good enough to make up for the lack of offensive firepower. The Tigers are actually averaging the ninth-best yards per play on offense at 6.7 yards per play, and that number has increased in the last three games, reaching eight yards per play, second only to Oklahoma.
Tennessee can't keep up with Missouri's emerging offense. This one won't be close. -- Go Chalk with Missouri
Notre Dame (-3.5) at Miami
The Fighting Irish are a better team. And even though the atmosphere will be electric, I'm backing the better talent over the home-field advantage.
Notre Dame has played legitimate teams this season. Georgia is better than many expected and the Irish lost by only one point. Even outside of the Bulldogs, though, Notre Dame's resume looks good. They beat a much-better-than-perceived Boston College team and a Michigan State team on the road that just beat Penn State. Oh and they beat USC and North Carolina State in recent weeks at home.
So the competition has been fierce, and the Fighting Irish have looked good in those games. Outside of last week's victory against Virginia Tech, Miami hasn't looked that great in its wins. Outside of the Virginia Tech win, the Hurricanes' best win might be a one-point victory at home against Georgia Tech. That's not saying much.
It's not just the resume, though, that I'm buying into Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are consistent on offense, averaging more yards per play than Miami, and although the Hurricanes are better on the defensive side of the ball, Notre Dame has seen by far better offenses than Miami this season.
The Fighting Irish have been tested more than the Hurricanes and that will show this week as I don't believe Miami can put two straight solid outings together against quality opponents. -- Go Chalk with Notre Dame
Rutgers at Penn State (-31)
That's a lot of points to give up, but I'm a new man in 2017 in college football. Unlike the NFL, college football requires giving up points at times. That's why I'm giving up more than four touchdowns against the Scarlet Knights.
I will pat myself on the back a little bit, though, correctly predicting Rutgers' win last week at home against Maryland. The defense wasn't great, but the offense actually showed up. This week will present a far different challenge.
The Nittany Lions endured a massive break in the action in their loss to Michigan State and lost a heartbreaker on the road against Ohio State. I still believe Penn State is the best team in the Big 10 and they should flex their muscles in this one. Rutgers showed vulnerabilities on the defensive side of the ball last week, so I anticipate that to hurt them once again in this one. And Penn State's defense is good enough that Rutgers won't be able to breathe in week 11. This one won't be close at halftime, so it will come down to Penn State's second-stringers keeping this one in blowout mode -- Go Chalk with Penn State
Scott Levine is the Associate Editor for the Clinton Herald. During his free time, he blogs about fantasy sports and handicaps games.
Scott Levine can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or on Twitter @ScottLevineCH