I’ve been on fire so far in the college football season, especially with the underdogs. I had another perfect week last week with the underdogs, running my total to 6-0 ATS on the season.
This week offers some challenges as teams deal with injuries and we start to find out who these teams truly are.
Underdogs: 6-0 ATS
Overall: 10-2 ATS
LSU at Mississippi State (+7.5)
Since 1992, LSU has dominated this series. Despite both teams playing each year, Mississippi State has only won twice during that span.
In recent years, though, this has been far more competitive, with the Bulldogs winning three years ago, and having games decided by a total of five points during the past two years. I get an edge in the coaching department with the Bulldogs and I have a defense capable enough to stop LSU’s offense.
The Tigers haven’t been challenged on offense, and when it faced an above-average team in BYU, the offense was mostly what it has always been. The Tigers will be able to run the football, but not much else.
The Bulldogs are getting more than a touchdown with a quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald who can move the ball against the vaunted LSU defense. I’m taking Dan Mullen, a more explosive offense and homefield advantage with this pick. — Go Against The Chalk with Mississippi State
Mississippi at California (+4)
California didn’t follow up its upset win from week 1 with a reassuring victory in week 2. The Golden Bears struggled against Weber State, taking away much of the goodwill generated from week 1.
But I’m going to give the Golden Bears a pass. California had to go coast-to-coast from weeks 1 to 2, and had to follow up an emotional victory against North Carolina with a game against Weber State. College teams are going to have letdowns against competition like that.
Now, the Golden Bears get a Mississippi team not playing for anything this season and starting slow for the first two weeks. The final scores look dominating, but don’t be fooled. The Rebels entered halftime in week 1 leading by three points, and led by one point in week 2 against UT Martin.
We’re giving Mississippi too much of the benefit of the doubt against two terrible teams. The Rebels aren’t good, but yet we’re supposed to believe they should be favored on the road against a California team that already has a solid win on its resume.
The Rebels won’t be able to start so late against a California team better than many predicted. — Go Against The Chalk with California
Purdue (+7) at Missouri
I think Purdue is better than we’re giving them credit for.
They have a new attitude with a new coach, and the offense has been more than serviceable. I still don’t know much about the defense, but the Boilermakers can compete if this turns into a shootout. I was impressed with the way Purdue didn’t have a letdown in week 2 against Ohio after losing a close game against Louisville.
Missouri, on the other hand, just can’t find an identity. South Carolina is better than many believed, but should they have won 31-13 at Missouri last week? The Tigers can’t do anything on the defensive side of the ball, which leads right into what Purdue wants to do.
The Boilermakers can score and the Tigers can’t stop anybody. This works perfectly for the representatives from the Big 10. — Go Against The Chalk with Purdue
Scott Levine can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or on Twitter @ScottLevineCH