My favorites have been atrocious this season in the NFL. This week, though, there are some matchups that create solid value for the favorites.
Here's the week 10 NFL picks featuring the three best favorites that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 8-18-1 ATS
Overall: 20-32-1 ATS
Cincinnati at Tennessee (-5)
I'm quick to forgive, so that helps in taking Tennessee for a second straight week. The Titans broke my heart last week, giving up a late cover touchdown to Baltimore, shutting down a cover and a winning week for my NFL favorites.
Much like week 9, the Titans just match up better against the opposition. Forget Cincinnati's back-to-back road trips and how much that could affect them. This is a statistical nightmare for the Bengals.
The Titans are averaging 5.3 yards per play, compared to Cincinnati's 4.8 yards per play this season, and a dwindling 4.3 yards per play in the last three games. Defensively, the once stout Bengals defense is slipping, giving up 5.3 yards per play in the last three games, compared to Tennessee's 4.6 yards per play. The Titans continue to show improvement in several phases of the game, including throwing for more yards per attempt, improving from a season-long 6.5 yards per pass attempt, to 7.2 yards per pass attempt in the last three games.
The Bengals are fading, while the Titans are improving. The Titans will finish this game better than last week and will cover. -- Go Chalk with Tennessee
New York Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay
I'm not completely giving up yet on the Buccaneers, but for now, this matchup makes more sense in the Jets direction.
Tampa Bay is without its starting quarterback and its best wide receiver. The defense is getting healthier, but there's still some holes left unfilled, especially the pass rush, which has been completely absent in 2017.
The Jets are statistically better than Tampa Bay in every category. And there's less drama operating in New York's locker room at the moment.
Defensively, New York is showing more each week, competing even better against the run in recent weeks, and putting pressure on the opposition's passing game.
I didn't think I would say this in 2017, but the Jets are the better team. Forget about the home-field advantage. The Bucs are in turmoil and aren't a very good team anyway. -- Go Chalk with New York Jets
Minnesota (-1.5) at Washington
Washington isn't a bad team. But they're not as good as Minnesota.
The Redskins can't run the ball, so the balance needed to keep the Vikings honest on the defensive side of the ball, won't happen in week 10. The Vikings are one of the top units against the pass in the NFL, which should help in this game.
Minnesota allows just 5.8 yards per pass attempt on the season, with an astounding 4.2 yards per pass attempt in the last three games. On a yards per play basis, the Vikings have been ridiculous in recent weeks, giving up 3.8 yards per play in the last three games.
They'll make Washington sustain drives and can do enough in the secondary to force Kirk Cousins to push the ball down the field. He's not comfortable with doing that, so the Redskins won't light up the scoreboard.
The Vikings' offense makes me squeamish, but their offense is pretty similar to Washington's. With similar offenses, I'll take the elite defense. -- Go Chalk with Minnesota
Scott Levine is the Associate Editor for the Clinton Herald. During his free time, he blogs about fantasy sports and handicaps games.
Scott Levine can be reached at email@example.com or on Twitter @ScottLevineCH