Busts are going to happen.
Making sure to not draft players who have bust potential in fantasy football drafts is mostly luck, with a little skill. Last year, I failed to understand that principle when I drafted LeSean McCoy, not listening to my own self when I worried aloud about his career workload.
So, needless to say, I won't be drafting McCoy again, and his ADP is so low, it would be impossible to consider him a bust this season.
Here's 3 players who I'm avoiding in the 2019 fantasy football draft.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
This pains me to say this since I'm a Vikings fan at heart, but Cook is a high-risk player. When he's been healthy, he's been an RB1. The problem, however, is that his health is a major concern.
In two seasons, he's played only 15 total games. With an Average Draft Position of 18 as the 11th-best running back, you're putting a lot of stock in a player who hasn't even played a combined full season in his two years in the NFL.
It's possible that he won't be considered a workhorse running back due to his injury issues in the past. It's also possible that Minnesota's offensive line hasn't improved enough to assist Kirk Cousins or Cook.
That's a problem, especially if you're counting on Cook as your RB1.
Antonio Brown, WR, Oakland Raiders
When your former team is smiling with glee because you're gone, that's probably a "you" problem.
If anyone believes that Pittsburgh is upset that Brown is no longer a Steeler, then they need to consider following a different sport. Brown is a distraction. And I'm not sure how much the Raiders and Derek Carr can keep Brown happy.
Brown was able to stay semi-quiet for the Steelers, likely because Pittsburgh was winning and had a veteran core. The Raiders won't be winning and they're a circus, even without Brown.
Brown may give you a few good games, but he's currently being drafted as a second rounder, which is too high in this environment.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
OK, he's probably going to be a top-three fantasy football quarterback.
I get that. But his ADP is ridiculous.
He's currently going off as the No. 13 pick in fantasy football drafts. It reminds me when Peyton Manning went crazy with 55 touchdown passes in 2013.
The next season, he was good, but not even close to that productivity. However, when the 2014 draft came around, everyone went crazy and drafted him No. 1. The same is happening with Mahomes, who only has one season of NFL starting experience.
And even if you don't believe fantasy football experts, there's a reason why there's such a big discrepancy in an aggregate ranking for Mahomes and his ADP. According to Fantasypros.com, an aggregate ranking of Mahomes has him listed at 35 overall, a good number for a quarterback, but far off from his ADP of 13.
Mahomes will likely be good, but not likely good enough to justify that ADP.
Scott Levine blogs about fantasy sports and handicaps games. His Against The Chalk blog has earned him three consecutive Iowa Newspaper Association awards for Best Blog. Check out more sports betting coverage at Against The Chalk.