My favorites have done well over the last few weeks with a speed bump in week 14. After an abysmal start to my NFL favorites, they've been good enough to get me over .500 for the year. Let's just hope last week's woes won't continue.
Here's my week 15 NFL picks featuring three favorites to watch in this week's SuperContest.
Overall: 40-39-4 ATS
SuperContest: 32-33-5 ATS (34.5 points)
Favorites: 21-20-1 ATS
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5)
I don't trust the Titans on the road.
Tennessee is 2-5 on the road this season, with two monster losses in the last two road games against Indianapolis and Houston. Both of those teams were able to mix a running game to go alongside a passing game, something the New York Giants have been able to do in recent weeks.
The Giants are showing some stability on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play in the last three games, up from its season average of 5.8. The Giants also have improved on defense, lowering its per play allowed mark from 5.8 to 5.2 in the last three weeks.
Tennessee has been a much different team on the road, averaging 0.8 yards per play less on offense and giving up 0.7 yards per play more on the road. The Giants are hot and getting healthier. -- Go Chalk with New York Giants
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
I get it. You want to completely sell off the Vikings for the remainder of the year after last week's abysmal performance against Seattle.
However, don't be so fast. This is the NFL.
The NFL is the ultimate week-to-week league. Just a few weeks ago, the Vikings were a hot pick to make a run through the playoffs after beating Green Bay. Back-to-back road games against New England and Seattle have tempered down those expectations.
But this is still the same Vikings team with a major home-field advantage. And the Vikings are much improved on offense at home and the defense is still a top-five unit. The Dolphins have been a bottom-five defense for much of the season and the offense is a bottom-half offense, with a much worse track record on the road. The Dolphins are averaging 6.2 yards per play at home. That number dwindles to 4.9 on the road. This is a lot of points, but the Vikings can cover this amount. -- Go Chalk with Minnesota
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
This comes down to trust. Who's the better quarterback?
I would assume many of you answered Andrew Luck...and you'd be right. I believe in Luck, so that's why I'm trusting the Colts in this scenario. And it doesn't hurt the Colts are at home. Indianapolis averages 6.2 yards per play at home. It averages 5.3 on the road.
And the defense has gotten better, lowering its yards per play allowed to less than 5 in the last three weeks.
The Cowboys have gotten plenty of press lately, but its not showing an ability to move the ball effectively on the offensive side of the ball. The Cowboys will have a difficult time moving the ball against an improved Indianapolis defense, so I'm banking on the Colts to win this one in a close contest. -- Go Chalk with Indianapolis
Scott Levine blogs about fantasy sports and handicaps games. His Against The Chalk blog has earned him back-to-back Iowa Newspaper Association awards for Best Blog. Check out more sports betting coverage at Against The Chalk.
Scott Levine can be reached at email@example.com or on Twitter @ScottLevineCH